The Recession

I think it's foolish to constantly rely on house prices as a sign of consumer and business confidence - it was one of the things that got us in this mess in the first place when the market was encouraged to overheat.

I would prefer talking to business leaders and seeing if they feel that growth is once again on the horizon.

I think unemployment is probably a better indicator and contractor rates. The former is still growing at record rates and the latter is falling with demand... I read somewhere that employment will lag behind a recovery as employer confidence grows.

What is needed is consumer confidence to return and perhaps the housing market reflects this, although I also read that construction is the last sector to recover.

With 1 in 8 pounds going to Tesco I reckon they would know better than anybody what is going on.

Tony

The problem with contractor rates though is that they're often just a handy way of cutting costs - I know that lots have simply been told "you're now on four weeks notice, however you can sign a new contract at 20% less your current rate".

Easy way to make inroads into your budget when you're told to cut it by your boss, and it doesn't upset your permanent staff.

So whilst that can tell a little about business confidence, I don't think it's the whole story.

Fair point, but I guess under normal circumstances the contractors would just walk out of the door knowing they would walk in to another assignment.

Depends... from knowing a few I think they'd take it but look for something elsewhere in order to invoke the notice clause themselves at a later date.

Actually, that's an interesting point. Another thing that's happening when contracts are being rewritten is that many businesses are forcing through an 'immediate notice' clause, i.e. they need to give none. Hardly encourages confidence.

My partner works in the building trade and last year his working hours and rates decreased massively, though we have seen an improvement over the past few months.

The economy is still in a pretty bad state, and I think it will be a slow recovery. Though consumer confidence does seem to be returning, but there are still many carrying a massive amount of debt.

My brother and his friend had a plumbing business that they had to wind down - they are both unemployed now.

I was unlucky enough to spend the afternoon in the Trafford Centre yesterday - no sign of a recession there it was rammed, although not sure how much the shops were taking.